Autobox Presentation @Risk Conference by Rob Firmin

Long time collaborator and customer, Rob Firmin, will be at November's presenting at the upcoming @Risk Best Practices Conference with an advanced case of using time series methods from Autobox with output integrated into @Risk for city level financial planning.

Here is the synopsis:

Policy Stress Tests Integrating Advanced Time Series into @RISK, and Public Confidence in Planning

Dr. Rob Firmin

Ongoing analysis supports short and long-range policy decisions for a California municipality. Challenges addressed within @RISK include: integration of advanced time series methods into @RISK to quantify financial effects forecasts of policy alternatives, anomalous events (e.g. wildfires and earthquakes), in addition to everyday variables (e.g., budget items and interest rate fluctuations); non-ad hoc simulations of forecast errors based on asymmetric time series error predictions; and evolutionary probability distributions around timing of critical financial-event triggers (e.g., advent of inadequate reserves). Packaging of results as easily understood stress tests of policy alternatives—presentable to officials and the public—increases confidence in town fiscal responsibility, and reduces discord at town hall meetings.

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