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Who We Are

ProbabilityManagement.org is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit dedicated to making uncertainty actionable through tools, standards, applications, and training.

What is Probability Management?

Probability management is the representation of uncertainties as data arrays called SIPs that obey both the laws of arithmetic and the laws of probability.

Cure the Flaw of Averages

ChanceCalc is a revolutionary Excel add-in that performs the arithmetic of uncertainty using the same keystrokes as those for numerical calculations. This cures the Flaw of Averages, a set of systematic errors that occur when uncertain forecasts are replaced by single “average” numbers.

Make Chance-Informed Decisions

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Where arithmetic tells you that X+Y=Z, the arithmetic of uncertainty asks what you want Z to be and then estimates your chances. Chance-informed decisions display tradeoffs between a range of goals and the chances of achieving them. This improves collaboration by acknowledging the risk attitudes of diverse stakeholders.

Roll Up Risks and Opportunities Across the Enterprise

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The open SIPmath™ Standard communicates uncertainties as actionable data, generated by experts using the SIPmath Modeler Tools, R, Python, or other environments. Just as electrification allows non-experts to use electricity generated by experts to power lightbulbs and appliances, non-experts may use SIPs in Excel or decision dashboards in a process we call Chancification. This ushers in a new approach to enterprise risk management in which risks and opportunities are rolled up like numbers in an accounting system.

 
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What’s New

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Latest Publications

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Recent Blog Posts