Frequently Quoted Forecasts

Marshal Ferdinand Foch in 1911: "Airplanes are interesting toys,

but they have no military value."

Business Week, 1958: "With over 50 foreign cars already on sale

here, the Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big

slice of the U.S. market."

"Whatever happens, the U.S. Navy is not going to be caught

napping."

what looks like a permanently high plateau." (March 1991 RD)

Fiedler's forecasting rules

1)Forecasting is very difficult, especially if it's about the

future. 2)For this reason: He who lives by the crystal ball

soon learn to eat ground glass. 3)Similarly: The moment you

forecast you know you're going to be wrong, you just don't know

when and in which direction. 4)Nevertheless, always be precise

in your forecasts because: Economists state their GNP growth

projections to the nearest tenth of a percentage point to prove

they have a sense of humor. 5)Another basic law: If the facts

don't conform to the theory, they must be disposed of. 6)If

you've always had doubts about the judgments of forecasters, it's

quite understandable because: An economist is a man who would

marry Farrah Fawcett-Majors for her money. 7)By the same

reasoning, your suspicions about the narrow range of most

forecasts are justified: The herd instinct among forecasters

make sheep look like independent thinkers. 9)When presenting a

forecast: Give them a number or give them a date, but never

both.