QUESTION:

Why do I need software that is Automatic. Doesn't estimation automatically give you the best set of

coefficients?

ANSWER:

While estimation gives you the best coefficients for the model that you specify, it may be that you are

estimating the wrong model. AUTOBOX conducts the model identification phase, stopping periodically to

estimate and then tunes up the model by adding and deleting structure. It might be argued that this can be

done manually, but it is too labor intensive to make it a realistic alternative when more than a few series

need to be modeled. AUTOBOX has been referred to as a Productivity Aid as it improves the performance

of existing personnel or makes up for the lack of experienced forecasters. In theory, I could walk from

Philadelphia to New York, but I take the car or the train. Good software is like that; it helps you to get

results more quickly and more easily, although some people always prefer to walk.