If Forecasting the Future is too tough... try Forecasting the Past ! Some Poor Forecasts Background Material on Type I/II Error Statistical Humor Spurious Stuff ! Browse Spurious Stuff ! Type I/II Error Poor use of methods can lead to poor decisions Statistics Don't Lie, Statisticians Do Opportunities and Pitfalls Spurious Correlation (TYPE I) Lurking Variables Spurious Correlation (TYPE I) Induced By Modeler Detecting Masked Correlation (TYPE II) Avoiding Errors of Omission