A LAG OF A KNOWN X VARIABLE IS NEEDED
A LAG OF A KNOWN X VARIABLE IS NEEDED
- Consider a case where the true but unknown model is:
Y(t) = v0*X(t) + v1*X(t-1) + A(t)
where A is an i.i.d. ( gaussian ) error distribution
and where the current tentative , albeit incorrect model is
Y(t) = v0*X(t) + e(t)
thus we have a case where
e(t) = v1*X(t-1) + A(t)
It is clear that if we correlate e(t) and X(t-1)
we will identify a statistically significant relationship
which will then lead to the required augmentation strategy.
The strategy is then clear , for all possible or candidate
"new variables" such as the X(t-1), X(t-2),....X(t-k)....etc. compute
partial correlations which will measure the expected impact of
the trial candidate. Select that one which has maximum correlation.
These approaches to developing new variables from existing series have had outstanding success
with time-series data.
A change in the value of an X variable may have a "ripple effect"
for a number of future time points.
CLICK HERE:Home Page For AUTOBOX